As befits the world's greatest democracy, public opinion has long held a prominent place in the evaluation of elected officials. The approval/disapproval numbers constantly cited for Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and now Barack Obama go back to more modest beginnings in the 1930's.
It Begins with FDR
The long-familiar frequent snapshots of how citizens viewed their Presidents began in President Franklin D. Roosevelt's second term. Polls by the George Gallup organization are available as far back as August, 1937, when FDR had a favorable rating of 60 percent.
Roosevelt actually dipped below 50 percent only once, in the summer of 1939, but recovered as World War II began, and was almost back at 60 percent when he began a campaign for an unprecedented third term a year later. He peaked at 84 percent a month after his famous "Day of Infamy" speech of December 8, 1941.
His little known successor, Harry S Truman, achieved an 87 per cent rating in June, 1945, a month after the war in Europe ended. But Truman had fallen below 50 percent within a year and achieved a low of 22 early in 1952 as the Korean War raged on in apparent stalemate. He rallied to above 30 per cent as he ended his term a year later, but thereafter received high ratings from both scholars and the public for decisive action in several crises.
Dwight Eisenhower, a wartime national hero long before seeking the presidency, peaked at 79 after his reelection in 1956, fell to 48 in a recession year, 1958, and closed at 59. His successor, Richard Nixon, reached 67 twice, in 1969 and 1973, but had declined to 23 early in 1974 as the Watergate investigations had begun to point to impeachment or resignation.
Gerald Ford enjoyed a 74 per cent favorable rating while picking up the pieces of the Nixon era but slid to 37 early in 1975 as inflation wracked the country. So, too, Jimmy Carter peaked at 75 shortly after assuming office but bottomed at 28 in the summer of 1979 as he shuffled his Cabinet and talked of a "malaise" afflicting the U.S.
Ronald Reagan achieved a high of 68 after an attempted assassination in his first year and dropped to 35 in 1983 as unemployment reached levels unseen since the Depression. He was back above 60 in time for an overwhelming reelection in 1984 and finished at 63. George H.W. Bush exceeded all his predecessors with an 89 rating just after the successful conclusion of the Gulf War in 1991 and then demonstrated the fickleness of the American public by falling to 29 during an economic slowdown in the summer of 1992 which gave his opponent, Bill Clinton, the edge in that election year.
More Polls More Often
While the Gallup ratings had been the gold standard for decades, new computer technology and media outlets facilitated surveys by additional organizations with even more frequency. Newpapers and TV networks now sponsored their own surveys, and so the many ratings cited are no longer comparable to those more uniformly conducted in the pre-Clinton era.
Clinton himself, a relative unknown elected in a three-way race in 1992, had a low of 36 as he struggled in his first year to make an impact with fiscal and health care legislation. Astoundingly, he reached his high of 73 twice in 1998, a year in which he fought accusations of improper conduct and lying and was impeached by the House of Representatives.
George W. Bush, also litle known, opened at about 50, depending on which poll was being cited, but soared to a record 92 in an ABC News survey in the month after 9/11. Back down to the low 50's at reelection time in 2004, he finished somewhere in a 7-point spread in the 30's.
Obama began with a low of 55 in his first week but was up to 76 in another poll barely a week later. At 57 late in June, he could look forward to more frequent, more divergent, and therefore less useful ratings as the surveyors and their outlets continue to proliferate.
Reference: The Roper Center, Public Opinion Archives, University of Connecticut
